New AI ranking of goalies

 I rewrote the formula for goalie save percentage to generate the number of shots required to score a goal based on save percentage. 95% means a goal every 20 shots, 90% means a goal every 10 shots. 80% means a goal every 5 shots.

I made a few other tweaks.

Prompt

I am drafting two hockey goalies for a fantasy NHL draft. Ignore goalies with less than 20 games played. For each goalie in the NHL, obtain their goaltending statistics from the attached spreadsheet, which is from https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/nhl-goalies-stats.html. Save percentage is worth 20%. For save percentage, we are actually evaluating the number of shots needed to score a goal. 95% means a goal every 20 shots, 90% means a goal every 10 shots. 80% means a goal every 5 shots.Use this formula: (1/(1 - save percentage)) * 20. Save percentage is a number less than one (e.g. 98.71% = 0.9871). Any numbers below zero count as zero. Games played is worth 40%. Take the number of games played, divide by 82 games, and multiply by 40 to get the number of points for this criteria. Wins are worth 20%. Use this formula: (wins/82) * 20. Shutouts are worth 20%. Use this formula: (shutouts/8)*20. Deliver the results in table format, sorted by total points ranking: [total points] [goalie name] [team][game played][games played points][shutouts] [shutout points] [save percentage] [save percentage points] [wins] [wins points]. Provide a downloadable table. List the top 20, sorted by total points ranking.

Results:

Total Points	Name	Team	GP	GP Points	SO	SO Points	SV%	SV Points	W	W Points
71.92	Connor Hellebuyck	WPG	63	30.73	8	20	0.92	266.67	47	11.46
67.78	Andrei Vasilevski	TBL	63	30.73	6	15	0.92	253.16	38	9.27
64.4	Darcy Kuemper	LAK	50	24.39	5	12.5	0.92	253.16	31	7.56
63.71	Anthony Stolarz	TOR	34	16.59	4	10	0.93	270.27	21	5.12
61.84	Filip Gustavsson	MIN	58	28.29	5	12.5	0.91	232.56	31	7.56
59.75	Mackenzie Blackwood	COL	56	27.32	4	10	0.91	227.27	28	6.83
58.38	Ilya Sorokin	NYI	61	29.76	4	10	0.91	215.05	30	7.32
58.32	Igor Shesterkin	NYR	61	29.76	6	15	0.9	210.53	27	6.59
58.03	Jake Oettinger	DAL	58	28.29	2	5	0.91	219.78	36	8.78
57.7	Dustin Wolf	CGY	53	25.85	3	7.5	0.91	222.22	29	7.07
57.2	Sergei Bobrovsky	FLA	54	26.34	5	12.5	0.91	212.77	33	8.05
56.01	Samuel Montembeault	MTL	62	30.24	4	10	0.9	202.02	31	7.56
55.99	Joey Daccord	SEA	57	27.8	2	5	0.91	212.77	27	6.59
55.87	Adin Hill	VGK	50	24.39	4	10	0.91	212.77	32	7.8
55.76	Linus Ullmark	OTT	44	21.46	4	10	0.91	219.78	25	6.1
55.35	Logan Thompson	WSH	43	20.98	2	5	0.91	222.22	31	7.56
54.75	Karel Vejmelka	UTA	58	28.29	1	2.5	0.9	208.33	26	6.34
54.01	Casey DeSmith	DAL	27	13.17	2	5	0.92	235.29	14	3.41
53.99	Kevin Lankinen	VAN	51	24.88	4	10	0.9	204.08	25	6.1
53.97	Joseph Woll	TOR	42	20.49	1	2.5	0.91	219.78	27	6.59

I asked ChatGPT to rate NHL goalies based on the prompt shown and got interesting results

 This prompt emphasizes that save percentage is backwards -- we should be thinking about percentage of shots not saved. I liked the results from this prompt:

I am drafting two hockey goalies for a fantasy NHL draft. For each goalie in the NHL, obtain their goaltending statistics from https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2025_goalies.html . Save percentage is worth 20%. For save percentage, we are actually evaluating the percentage of shots _not_ saved. Use this formula 20 - (((1 - save percentage) * 20) ^2). Any numbers below zero count as zero. Games played is worth 40%. Take the number of games played, divide by 82 games, and multiply by 40 to get the number of points for this criteria. Wins are worth 20%. Use this formula: (wins/82) * 20. Shutouts are worth 20%. Use this formula: (shutouts/8)*20. Deliver the results in table format, sorted by total points ranking: [goalie name] [team][games played points] [shutout points] [save percentage points] [wins points]. Provide a downloadable table. List the top 20.

ChatGPT noted: 

Notes & Observations

• Connor Hellebuyck leads by a wide margin—strong across all categories, especially shutouts and saves.

• Darcy Kuemper not in top initially, but strong SV % and good totals put him solidly in the top 5.

• Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Sam Montembeault hover in the high 60s with balanced performance.

• A few duplicates were removed to ensure unique goalie listings.

It gave me the top 18 becayse Vejmelka and Lankinen were listed twice (for different teams) in the data sent that I provided. 

Rank	Goalie	Team	GP	SO	SV%	GP_pts	SV%_pts	W	W_pts	SO_pts	Total
1	Connor Hellebuyck	WPG	63	8	0.925	30.73	17.75	47	11.46	20.00	79.94
2	Andrei Vasilevskiy	TBL	63	6	0.921	30.73	17.50	38	9.27	15.00	72.50
3	Filip Gustavsson	MIN	58	5	0.914	28.29	17.04	31	7.56	12.50	65.39
4	Igor Shesterkin	NYR	61	6	0.905	29.76	16.39	27	6.59	15.00	67.74
5	Ilya Sorokin	NYI	61	4	0.907	29.76	16.54	30	7.32	10.00	63.62
6	Sam Montembeault	MTL	62	4	0.901	30.24	16.08	31	7.56	10.00	63.88
7	Adin Hill	VEG	50	4	0.906	24.39	16.48	32	7.80	10.00	58.67
8	Juuse Saros	NSH	58	4	0.895	28.29	15.19	20	4.88	10.00	58.36
9	Jeremy Swayman	BOS	58	4	0.892	28.29	14.75	22	5.37	10.00	58.41
10	Jordan Binnington	STL	56	3	0.900	27.32	16.00	28	6.83	7.50	57.65
11	Karel Vejmelka	UTA	58	1	0.904	28.29	16.31	26	6.34	2.50	53.44
12	Kevin Lankinen	VAN	51	4	0.902	24.85	16.00	25	6.10	10.00	56.95
13	Stuart Skinner	EDM	51	3	0.896	24.85	15.37	26	6.34	7.50	54.06
14	Jake Oettinger	DAL	58	2	0.909	28.29	16.69	36	8.78	5.00	58.76
15	Anthony Stolarz	TOR	34	4	0.926	16.59	17.90	21	5.12	10.00	49.61
16	Jake Allen	NJD	31	4	0.906	15.12	16.48	13	3.17	10.00	44.77
17	Scott Wedgewood	COL	19	2	0.917	9.27	17.03	13	3.17	5.00	34.47
18	Justus Annunen	NSH	23	0	0.888	11.22	13.11	9	2.20	0.00	26.53

Note that I forget to tell ChatGPT to rank by total points. The table should look like this:

Rank	Goalie	Team	GP	SO	SV%	GP_pts	SV%_pts	W	W_pts	SO_pts	Total
1	Connor Hellebuyck	WPG	63	8	0.925	30.73	17.75	47	11.46	20.00	79.94
2	Andrei Vasilevskiy	TBL	63	6	0.921	30.73	17.50	38	9.27	15.00	72.50
4	Igor Shesterkin	NYR	61	6	0.905	29.76	16.39	27	6.59	15.00	67.74
3	Filip Gustavsson	MIN	58	5	0.914	28.29	17.04	31	7.56	12.50	65.39
6	Sam Montembeault	MTL	62	4	0.901	30.24	16.08	31	7.56	10.00	63.88
5	Ilya Sorokin	NYI	61	4	0.907	29.76	16.54	30	7.32	10.00	63.62
14	Jake Oettinger	DAL	58	2	0.909	28.29	16.69	36	8.78	5.00	58.76
7	Adin Hill	VEG	50	4	0.906	24.39	16.48	32	7.80	10.00	58.67
9	Jeremy Swayman	BOS	58	4	0.892	28.29	14.75	22	5.37	10.00	58.41
8	Juuse Saros	NSH	58	4	0.895	28.29	15.19	20	4.88	10.00	58.36
10	Jordan Binnington	STL	56	3	0.900	27.32	16.00	28	6.83	7.50	57.65
12	Kevin Lankinen	VAN	51	4	0.902	24.85	16.00	25	6.10	10.00	56.95
13	Stuart Skinner	EDM	51	3	0.896	24.85	15.37	26	6.34	7.50	54.06
11	Karel Vejmelka	UTA	58	1	0.904	28.29	16.31	26	6.34	2.50	53.44
15	Anthony Stolarz	TOR	34	4	0.926	16.59	17.90	21	5.12	10.00	49.61
16	Jake Allen	NJD	31	4	0.906	15.12	16.48	13	3.17	10.00	44.77
17	Scott Wedgewood	COL	19	2	0.917	9.27	17.03	13	3.17	5.00	34.47
18	Justus Annunen	NSH	23	0	0.888	11.22	13.11	9	2.20	0.00	26.53

Bobrovsky is -- notably -- missing, as are others (Wolf, Markstrom). The point here is that goalie performance drops fast. Darcy Kemper should be on the list but is not.