Quick thoughts, but Nate Silver's world cup statistical model is doing badly for several reasons.
1) Soccer is not baseball. It does not have repeated activities that are easy to measure statstically.
2) The World Cup delivers little data. Teams perform differently in the finals than in qualification. Those such as the USA that face poor quality opposition get ranked too high. Others get ranked too low.
3) The Africa factor. The African teams are underfunded compared to, for example, Japan, and therefore naturally perform less well than better funded teams. England's coach makes $9 million per year. The US coach makes $500,000. African coaches make less, and also may have a shorter tenure.
4) A low scoring game can have unpredictable results -- especially in games decided by a red card or penalty kick (or even a free kick).
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