Players Who Underperformed Last Year and Should be Undervalued in the Current Draft

One easy way to underperform is to be injured. Some players who were injured might get injured again and should be avoided in HTH formats but are valuable in Rotisserie, where you're not really penalized for games lost to injury. Top of the list of players who are not valuable in HTH, in my opinion, is Edmonton's Ales Hemsky. He played at a point per game pace, but for barely more than 20 games, and could do the same this year.

Top of my list of players who were hurt but should bounce back is Paul Martin. The Devils defenceman reminded me a lot of Brian Rafalski, who left the Devils and became a reliable point producer in Detroit. Martin landed in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh rotates its lines so much that [silly centrifugal force analogy], making it difficult to pick any forward there other than Crosby, Malkin, and Stall (I like Kennedy too, especially since he's dual position eligible, but he plays a high risk game and gets injured). Martin is likely to get a large number points -- and he'll get more when Gonchar get injured, as he inevitably will. There is certainly a risk that Martin will get injured too -- there's also a possibility that his point production, which was close to 0.5 per game for the past two years, will increase. If he can make 0.7 points per game, he could be one of the best defensemen in the league.

As far as I know, only ESPN allows you to sort players by points per game.

Another player who shows up in this list is Tyler Ennis, who is dual position eligible (C,W) in Yahoo. He not only averaged nearly a point per game in the regular season -- Ennis also played significant minutes in the post season and got points. Yahoo ranks him highly, but he's a risk because he may not continue to get the ice time. Take him, but not in the first few rounds.

Patrik Elias is a tough call. He played barely more than 50 games last year, but has the potential to be one of the league's elite players (especially if the Devils play him on a line with Kovalchuk, as Fischler would like). As it is, he may play with Arnott and Langenbrunner, who are certainly good linemates. Elias is also dual eligible (C,W) so I think he's worth taking, in spite of the injury risk. In addition to other issues, Elias never fully recovered from the food-borne hepatitis he caught in the Czech Republic.

I would stay away from Mark Savard. Unlike other players in this article, Savard suffered a concussion, not broken bones, and I do not believe he will ever fully heal. Furthermore, since Savard is a key player for Boston, opponents will hit him in the head. He played about 40 games last season and could play the same amount this year.

Next, Max's favorite player, Johan Franzen. Franzen is a phenomenon. He's a joy to watch on the ice. If he plays a full year (for him, that's 74 of 82 games), he'll be well worth an early draft pick. I think he can do it, but don't take him in the first two rounds. However, he played only 27 games last year.

I believe that Milan Hejduk, who played barely over 50 games last year, will play a full season this year on a rejuvinated Colorado Avalanche team. Don't expect PIMs from him, but he'll deliver shots and power play points. He will be encouraged to perform as his contract ends this year.

Players who have moved

Two new players have arrived in Boston, and expectations are extremely high. I have always liked RW Nathan Horton. Last year, he was even dual eligible (C,W). I think he's one of the best all around players in the NHL, and he's very young, with lots of potential. Some Boston bloggers think he might get over 50 goals this year. I agree -- he might. He also might get 25. So if he's available after a few rounds, by all means take him, but don't take him in the first two.

Many are ignoring Defenceman Dennis Seidenberg, possibly because he comes from Carolina and Florida, who are not winning teams. But look at the splits for Seidenberg's performance last year: just over 0.5 points per game with Boston, the team he's with now, after getting close to 0.35 points per game with his previous team. I believe Seidenberg could get 0.6 points per game. He'll take few penalties but will get power play time, shots, and, on his new team, should deliver an excellent +/-.

Jason Arnott has had injury-shortened seasons in each of his last two years, playing a little over 60 games. But reunited with Elias (his line on the cup-winning team was Elias - Arnott - Sykora), he could deliver a signficant quantity of points. Like Elias, he's an injury risk. If he plays with Elias and Langenbrunner, his shots should go down, but he might survive the season. He'll move from the top line in Nashville to the second line in Jersey.

Kovalev is the enigma of hockey (ever since he broke his foot years ago). I have no idea how he will perform in Ottawa.

Ty Conklin is a good goalie. Don't assume that Halak has the starting position nailed down, unless the coach is swayed by the differences in their contracts. Conklin might get traded. Halak's contract is long term and Conklin's ends this year. On the other hand:

Players with short contracts

Players with short contracts will want to prove themselves.

The Flyers have Carter, Zherdev, and Carcillo only through the end of this year. I expect full PIM production from Carcillo and SHPs from Carter.

Chara's contract with the Bruins also ends this year. He will get an A for effort this year, but I cannot predict whether the effort will be in PIMs and hits or in points.

Calgary's defense has Ian White and Mark Giordano up for contract renewal at the end of the year. Both are point producers on defense, but valuable mostly as late picks. Curtis Glencross is the kind of player you may be able to pick up on the waiver wire. His contract also ends this year.

Plenty of players in Chicago will be up for renewal at the end of the year. I would focus on Brent Seabrook, who is good as your third or fourth defenceman, assuming that Chicago can still win games after losing so many key players in the offseason.

Dallas' best player, Brad Richards, has a contract that expires this year. He will perform. I just hope he does not get hurt.

In Detroit, Lidstrom's contract ends this year, but I expect him to play as he always has. If Detroit is smart, they'll sign him to a 2 or 3 year contract. Also up for renewal are the contracts of both goalies, Howard and Osgood. I think Howard will do well and Osgood will melt.

Los Angeles' two best D-men, Doughty and Williams, have contracts ending this year. Also, sniper Ponikarovsky is on a short leash, with a one year contract, but if he and the coach argue, Ponikarovsky could see little ice time on a team that has skill and depth.

In New Jersey, last year's surprise D, Andy Greene, will have a contract up for renewal. Given the nature of the team and the fact that Greene currently makes so little, I think Greene might get traded. Keep an eye on his status. Also up for renewal will be the captain's contract, but I think Langenbrunner will put in the 100% effort he always does.

On the Island, last year's sniper Moulson has one year left on his contract and Konopka, who delivered the highest PIMs per game last year, is on a one year contract.

My favorite Phoenix D (good for third or fourth on your team), Keith Yandle, is in the last year of his contract, but so is most of the team.

Most of Vancouver's defense is in the last year of their contract. Rumors say that Bieksa wants out. I like Salo, but he gets hurt, so I generally avoid this team's D.

In Washington, numerous interesting players are in the last year of their contract: veterans Poti and Knuble as well as young hotshots Laich, Fleischmann, and Semin. It will be an interesting year for the Capitals, Max.

Childhood concussions have doubled in 10 years

A story in the NY Times reports on a new study:

"The number of child athletes taken to emergency rooms with sports-related concussions doubled over a recent 10-year-period, a new study reports, even though participation in team sports decreased slightly during the period, from 1997 to 2007."

This must change

Should the rules of hockey be different for kids?

Medical doctor, NHL coach say kids shouldn't learn to hit until later teen years says the headline. But commenters on The Hockey News website say that children should be allowed to hit each other when playing hockey.

I hope that more studies of this issue get funded -- and that the results are made public.

Link Between Head Injuries and Lou Gehrig's Disease

It seems obvious that head injuries would do all sorts of nasty things to the body, but here's more proof of that.

I hope professional sports will start to take this issue seriously.

How Many Bad Calls?

Nate Silver sets us straight on how we should expect referees to perform.

World Cup Soccer: Paraguay 0 Spain 1

The only good thing about this game is that this is the score I predicted in Fantasy. One of the strangest games ever, with numerous poor and inconsistent decisions. The referee should have been the "man of the match" because his erratic performance eclipsed everyone else.

Still, Villa's goal, scored off both posts, was superb.

World Cup Soccer: Germany 4 Argentina 0

My Argentine friend tells me that this game showed that Maradona is a player, not a coach. I think that this stage of the finals showed that Europe has the money to spend on their national teams, and that the money tells.

Germany is a superb team. Although I'll be rooting for Spain and then Holland, I expect Germany to win this World Cup.

One note of caution -- although Argentina did not score on Germany's goalie, he did not impress.

World Cup Soccer: Holland 2 Brazil 1

Finally, a game whose result I accept. A brilliant game puts Holland through to the final, where they are likely to face Germany but might face Spain. This is the game that got Dunga fired -- but taking the joy out of Brazilian soccer is a far greater crime than an "early" exit from the World Cup.

World Cup Soccer: Uruguay-Ghana Penalties

The game was played by the rules, and Uruguay's performance got them through to the next round, but with Suarez on a red card, and after playing the extra 30 minutes, Uruguay appear even more likely to lose their next game.

World Cup Soccer: Germany 4 England 1

England were clearly missing Rio Ferdinand. Also, as a fan of Liverpool, I can say that Crouch, Heskey, and David James have no place on England's national team.

That said, the Germans played a superb game -- a game that should have been tied 2-2 but for yet another terrible refereeing decision made possible by corrupt FIFA president Sepp Blatter. Love the game, boycott FIFA. Blatter must go.

World Cup Soccer: Argentina 3 Mexico 1

Mexican press rightly angry about the first and most important goal, which was clearly offsides, but Argentina played an excellent game.

World Cup Soccer: USA 1 Ghana 2

Heartbreaking -- but Ghana were the better team. The USA has a great goalie in Howard and a top striker in Donovan, but we need to complete the team. Fielhaber was excellent. Would have liked to have seen Buddle -- especially once it became clear that the younger Ghanaian team were running circles around the US.

World Cup Soccer: Uruguay 2 South Korea 1

South Korea played nervous and timid at times, and the first goal was due to atrocious defending, but Uruguay have a very strong team with two astonishingly talented goal scorers up front. With Suarez' 2 goals in this one, Uruguay is the only team with 2 different players to score 2 or more in different games. (Portugal did score 7 goals in one game but also played two 0-0 ties in the first round.)

The awful condition of the pitch was really the star of the game, but a slippery ball could have led to more goals.

World Cup Soccer Statistics: Goals by League in Group Stage

So far, the leagues whose players have scored the most goals in the World Cup -- as of the end of the group stage -- are:

Spain: 20
England: 14
Italy: 9
Germany: 8
Netherlands: 6

All multi-goal scorers are from Spain except for Slovakia's Vittek, who plays in Turkey.

The players who play in Spain and have scored more than one goal in a game are Higuain (Argentina / Real Madrid), Forlan (Uruguay / Athletico Madrid), Fabiano (Brazil / Sevilla), Tiago (Portugal / Athletico Madrid), and of course David Villa (Spain / Valencia). The Spanish league clearly has more than two teams in it -- and while one Real player is on this list, none from Barca are on it -- yet.

This shows that Britain and Spain derive their strength from having a real contest and from importing high quality players.

The Italian national team, unusually, featured players who all play in their home country. The only other teams that also feature players in their home league are Germany, England, and Spain. Going only by this goal count, I think things look good for England and Spain.

World Cup Soccer: Spain 2 Chile 1

A surprising game that could have gone either way. Torres is not up to his tournament winning form and should be rested next match. I hope they do so. David Villa can handle the load.

In the Honduras vs. Defensive Switzerland game, Honduras had a few chances and could have won but go out with pride, eliminating a European team that beat Spain, and proving that they deserved to be at the World Cup (many thought Costa Rica a better team).

World Cup Soccer: Brazil 0 Portugal 0

I would say that this was a cynical draw -- except for the 8 yellow cards that the two teams accumulated. Those yellow cards could hurt them later.

Cote D'Ivoire went out in style, but should have tried to get more goals. The entire tournament would have been different had Drogba not broken his arm just a few weeks ago.

World Cup Soccer: JPN 3 DEN 1

I expected this game to be won by Danish-style total football with midfield domination, lots of goals, and every player playing a full 90 minute marathon of movement and it was -- but it was the Japanese playing total football. Paraguay, watch out! Ref was bad, slightly below the very low refereeing standards set at this world cup, but not the worst.

In the other match, Holland cruised to a win against a good Cameroon side who scored only from the penalty box.

World Cup Soccer: NZ 0 PAR 0 (SLV 3 ITA 2)

I had been hoping for NZ to score 1 goal in a wide open match, but that did not happen.

Meanwhile, the Italians showed that they never deserved the last World Cup (they should have been eliminated by Australia).

The 2006 World Cup was rigged in Italy's favor but results in this World Cup show that the top 3 European leagues are ENG, GER, and, at the top, SPAIN. FRA, ITA, and Holland are in the second tier. I will update these stats when the opening round is complete.

World Cup Soccer: Australia 2 Serbia 1

Australia have now been cheated out of 2 World Cups, with 2 red cards in 3 games in South Africa and 11 yellow cards in 4 in Germany 2006. They were eliminated by a penalty kick in Germany in 2006 and effectively by the red cards and a penalty kick in 2010.

World Cup Soccer Red Card: USA 1 Algeria 0

Donovan's game winner in the 91st minute was one of the best in the history of US soccer, but this game shows yet again that FIFA must install instant replay and position an extra official behind each goal. The USA should have won by 2.