Players Who Underperformed Last Year and Should be Undervalued in the Current Draft

One easy way to underperform is to be injured. Some players who were injured might get injured again and should be avoided in HTH formats but are valuable in Rotisserie, where you're not really penalized for games lost to injury. Top of the list of players who are not valuable in HTH, in my opinion, is Edmonton's Ales Hemsky. He played at a point per game pace, but for barely more than 20 games, and could do the same this year.

Top of my list of players who were hurt but should bounce back is Paul Martin. The Devils defenceman reminded me a lot of Brian Rafalski, who left the Devils and became a reliable point producer in Detroit. Martin landed in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh rotates its lines so much that [silly centrifugal force analogy], making it difficult to pick any forward there other than Crosby, Malkin, and Stall (I like Kennedy too, especially since he's dual position eligible, but he plays a high risk game and gets injured). Martin is likely to get a large number points -- and he'll get more when Gonchar get injured, as he inevitably will. There is certainly a risk that Martin will get injured too -- there's also a possibility that his point production, which was close to 0.5 per game for the past two years, will increase. If he can make 0.7 points per game, he could be one of the best defensemen in the league.

As far as I know, only ESPN allows you to sort players by points per game.

Another player who shows up in this list is Tyler Ennis, who is dual position eligible (C,W) in Yahoo. He not only averaged nearly a point per game in the regular season -- Ennis also played significant minutes in the post season and got points. Yahoo ranks him highly, but he's a risk because he may not continue to get the ice time. Take him, but not in the first few rounds.

Patrik Elias is a tough call. He played barely more than 50 games last year, but has the potential to be one of the league's elite players (especially if the Devils play him on a line with Kovalchuk, as Fischler would like). As it is, he may play with Arnott and Langenbrunner, who are certainly good linemates. Elias is also dual eligible (C,W) so I think he's worth taking, in spite of the injury risk. In addition to other issues, Elias never fully recovered from the food-borne hepatitis he caught in the Czech Republic.

I would stay away from Mark Savard. Unlike other players in this article, Savard suffered a concussion, not broken bones, and I do not believe he will ever fully heal. Furthermore, since Savard is a key player for Boston, opponents will hit him in the head. He played about 40 games last season and could play the same amount this year.

Next, Max's favorite player, Johan Franzen. Franzen is a phenomenon. He's a joy to watch on the ice. If he plays a full year (for him, that's 74 of 82 games), he'll be well worth an early draft pick. I think he can do it, but don't take him in the first two rounds. However, he played only 27 games last year.

I believe that Milan Hejduk, who played barely over 50 games last year, will play a full season this year on a rejuvinated Colorado Avalanche team. Don't expect PIMs from him, but he'll deliver shots and power play points. He will be encouraged to perform as his contract ends this year.

Players who have moved

Two new players have arrived in Boston, and expectations are extremely high. I have always liked RW Nathan Horton. Last year, he was even dual eligible (C,W). I think he's one of the best all around players in the NHL, and he's very young, with lots of potential. Some Boston bloggers think he might get over 50 goals this year. I agree -- he might. He also might get 25. So if he's available after a few rounds, by all means take him, but don't take him in the first two.

Many are ignoring Defenceman Dennis Seidenberg, possibly because he comes from Carolina and Florida, who are not winning teams. But look at the splits for Seidenberg's performance last year: just over 0.5 points per game with Boston, the team he's with now, after getting close to 0.35 points per game with his previous team. I believe Seidenberg could get 0.6 points per game. He'll take few penalties but will get power play time, shots, and, on his new team, should deliver an excellent +/-.

Jason Arnott has had injury-shortened seasons in each of his last two years, playing a little over 60 games. But reunited with Elias (his line on the cup-winning team was Elias - Arnott - Sykora), he could deliver a signficant quantity of points. Like Elias, he's an injury risk. If he plays with Elias and Langenbrunner, his shots should go down, but he might survive the season. He'll move from the top line in Nashville to the second line in Jersey.

Kovalev is the enigma of hockey (ever since he broke his foot years ago). I have no idea how he will perform in Ottawa.

Ty Conklin is a good goalie. Don't assume that Halak has the starting position nailed down, unless the coach is swayed by the differences in their contracts. Conklin might get traded. Halak's contract is long term and Conklin's ends this year. On the other hand:

Players with short contracts

Players with short contracts will want to prove themselves.

The Flyers have Carter, Zherdev, and Carcillo only through the end of this year. I expect full PIM production from Carcillo and SHPs from Carter.

Chara's contract with the Bruins also ends this year. He will get an A for effort this year, but I cannot predict whether the effort will be in PIMs and hits or in points.

Calgary's defense has Ian White and Mark Giordano up for contract renewal at the end of the year. Both are point producers on defense, but valuable mostly as late picks. Curtis Glencross is the kind of player you may be able to pick up on the waiver wire. His contract also ends this year.

Plenty of players in Chicago will be up for renewal at the end of the year. I would focus on Brent Seabrook, who is good as your third or fourth defenceman, assuming that Chicago can still win games after losing so many key players in the offseason.

Dallas' best player, Brad Richards, has a contract that expires this year. He will perform. I just hope he does not get hurt.

In Detroit, Lidstrom's contract ends this year, but I expect him to play as he always has. If Detroit is smart, they'll sign him to a 2 or 3 year contract. Also up for renewal are the contracts of both goalies, Howard and Osgood. I think Howard will do well and Osgood will melt.

Los Angeles' two best D-men, Doughty and Williams, have contracts ending this year. Also, sniper Ponikarovsky is on a short leash, with a one year contract, but if he and the coach argue, Ponikarovsky could see little ice time on a team that has skill and depth.

In New Jersey, last year's surprise D, Andy Greene, will have a contract up for renewal. Given the nature of the team and the fact that Greene currently makes so little, I think Greene might get traded. Keep an eye on his status. Also up for renewal will be the captain's contract, but I think Langenbrunner will put in the 100% effort he always does.

On the Island, last year's sniper Moulson has one year left on his contract and Konopka, who delivered the highest PIMs per game last year, is on a one year contract.

My favorite Phoenix D (good for third or fourth on your team), Keith Yandle, is in the last year of his contract, but so is most of the team.

Most of Vancouver's defense is in the last year of their contract. Rumors say that Bieksa wants out. I like Salo, but he gets hurt, so I generally avoid this team's D.

In Washington, numerous interesting players are in the last year of their contract: veterans Poti and Knuble as well as young hotshots Laich, Fleischmann, and Semin. It will be an interesting year for the Capitals, Max.